Thursday, March 4, 2010
Dollar yen reacting to EUR-USD pair, as usual.
Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.53 only to stop in the middle of the way to the suggested target, settling for 88.31. This break gives chance to more drop, but on one important condition. This condition is to stay below, and not break, the falling trend line from 92.13, which is currently only pips above the current price, at 88.53. If the price stays below this line, more drop is to be expected. Short term support is at 88.31, and if broken we will move slowly towards 87, where the targets 87.72 & 87.00 awaits. The technical outlook stays negative as long as we are below the resistance of the day 88.53.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Trading Forex For A Living?
Before you decide to become a professional day trader, consider that only around 11% of daytraders are actually profitable. This, along with the statistic that 70% of people lose money day trading, was revealed by The North American Securities Administrators Association. Having a solid strategy, day trading system, state of the art day trading software, and the discipline to learn the market that you plan on trading are vital to your success. In addition, not everyone possesses the timing, personality, and funds necessary to become a successful professional trader, yet many still try and jump in head first into one of the most risky careers out there.
With many different trading strategies to choose from, it is important to choose one that fits your style of trading and stick to it. Each strategy has a unique mind-set and trying to juggle more than one can throw off your whole game. For example, in stock trading, swing traders try to anticipate peaks and troths over a period of days or weeks. Conversely, scalpers are looking for minute to minute entry and exit points with no regard for what a stock is going to do long term. Switching gears between the two is confusing and dangerous if done without proper research first.
Profitable traders must also have a system and the proper tools to implement it. Stock and forex trading software offers many systems to assist traders. Automated, advisory, and rule based systems are just some those most commonly used. Having access to accurate data quickly is vital for those who trade for a living. There are some amazing software packages offered to traders that allows them to customize a trading system. In addition, there are others that allow traders to utilize more than one system at a time in order to create an even more accurate market shot.
Regardless of how many resources traders have access to, if they do not have the discipline to do the prep work and concentrate on their trades, they will most likely lose money. While luck may sometimes be on your side and you may make thousands of dollars with little effort, don’t get over-confident. To trade for a living and be profitable, you must think of trading as more of a science and less of a gamble.
Timing is essential in trading. Second guessing your strategy can cause you to miss lucrative trading opportunities. Therefore, having a confident and assertive personality is essential if you want to trade for a living. Those who have a low patients threshold should stay away from trading. Those who trade on emotion are most likely to lose sight of their plan and lose their money. While losses are inevitable, taking them in stride and being able to learn from anomalous situations is key. Lastly, you will need to have a decent amount of funds available for trading while you hone your strategies. Those who day trade for a living ideally want to get to the point where they are trading with “house money” but until then, having enough funds to stay in margin is necessary.
About the Author
Written by: John Gilliam
With many different trading strategies to choose from, it is important to choose one that fits your style of trading and stick to it. Each strategy has a unique mind-set and trying to juggle more than one can throw off your whole game. For example, in stock trading, swing traders try to anticipate peaks and troths over a period of days or weeks. Conversely, scalpers are looking for minute to minute entry and exit points with no regard for what a stock is going to do long term. Switching gears between the two is confusing and dangerous if done without proper research first.
Profitable traders must also have a system and the proper tools to implement it. Stock and forex trading software offers many systems to assist traders. Automated, advisory, and rule based systems are just some those most commonly used. Having access to accurate data quickly is vital for those who trade for a living. There are some amazing software packages offered to traders that allows them to customize a trading system. In addition, there are others that allow traders to utilize more than one system at a time in order to create an even more accurate market shot.
Regardless of how many resources traders have access to, if they do not have the discipline to do the prep work and concentrate on their trades, they will most likely lose money. While luck may sometimes be on your side and you may make thousands of dollars with little effort, don’t get over-confident. To trade for a living and be profitable, you must think of trading as more of a science and less of a gamble.
Timing is essential in trading. Second guessing your strategy can cause you to miss lucrative trading opportunities. Therefore, having a confident and assertive personality is essential if you want to trade for a living. Those who have a low patients threshold should stay away from trading. Those who trade on emotion are most likely to lose sight of their plan and lose their money. While losses are inevitable, taking them in stride and being able to learn from anomalous situations is key. Lastly, you will need to have a decent amount of funds available for trading while you hone your strategies. Those who day trade for a living ideally want to get to the point where they are trading with “house money” but until then, having enough funds to stay in margin is necessary.
About the Author
Written by: John Gilliam
FREE FOREX SIGNAL OF THE DAY - 03-03-10
EUR-USD
BUY WHEN 1.3555, 1.3490, 1.3436.
Currency trading risk disclaimer
The risk disclaimer is meant to inform the user of the potential financial risks of engaging in foreign exchange trading. The transaction of such financial instruments known as forex, fx, currency and dealt on a valued basis known as 'spot' or 'forward' can contain a substantial degree of risk. Before deciding to undertake such transactions by making use of our signals, and indeed by any other firm offering similar services, a user should carefully evaluate whether his/her financial situation is appropriate. Trading foreign exchange may result in substantial loss of funds and/or complete loss of funds and therefore should only be undertaken with risk capital. The definition of risk capital is funds that are not necessary to the survival or well being of the user. We recommend that a user considering trading foreign exchange products study through all the topics related to Foreign Currency Exchange, so that he/she may obtain a clear and accurate understanding of the risks inherent to fx trading. Opinions and analysis on potential expected market movements contained within this blog or website are not to be considered necessarily precise or timely and due to the public nature of the internet, we cannot at any time guarantee the accuracy of such information. Trading on-line no matter how convenient or efficient does not necessarily reduce the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and we do not accept any responsibility towards any visitor, customer, member or third party acting on such information contained on the website as to the accuracy or delay of information such as quotations, news and charts derived from quotations. Additionally, we do not accept responsibility for any losses or lost trading opportunities deriving from interruptions in online communications or generally technical problems rendering any broker's dealing software unavailable.
If you do not understand the risks involved in trading foreign exchange, do not trade it.
BUY WHEN 1.3555, 1.3490, 1.3436.
Currency trading risk disclaimer
The risk disclaimer is meant to inform the user of the potential financial risks of engaging in foreign exchange trading. The transaction of such financial instruments known as forex, fx, currency and dealt on a valued basis known as 'spot' or 'forward' can contain a substantial degree of risk. Before deciding to undertake such transactions by making use of our signals, and indeed by any other firm offering similar services, a user should carefully evaluate whether his/her financial situation is appropriate. Trading foreign exchange may result in substantial loss of funds and/or complete loss of funds and therefore should only be undertaken with risk capital. The definition of risk capital is funds that are not necessary to the survival or well being of the user. We recommend that a user considering trading foreign exchange products study through all the topics related to Foreign Currency Exchange, so that he/she may obtain a clear and accurate understanding of the risks inherent to fx trading. Opinions and analysis on potential expected market movements contained within this blog or website are not to be considered necessarily precise or timely and due to the public nature of the internet, we cannot at any time guarantee the accuracy of such information. Trading on-line no matter how convenient or efficient does not necessarily reduce the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and we do not accept any responsibility towards any visitor, customer, member or third party acting on such information contained on the website as to the accuracy or delay of information such as quotations, news and charts derived from quotations. Additionally, we do not accept responsibility for any losses or lost trading opportunities deriving from interruptions in online communications or generally technical problems rendering any broker's dealing software unavailable.
If you do not understand the risks involved in trading foreign exchange, do not trade it.
How to Read a Chart & Act Effectively
Introduction
This is a guide that tells you, in simple understandable language, how to choose the right charts, read them correctly, and act effectively in the market from what you see on them. Probably most of you have taken a course or studied the use of charts in the past. This should add to that knowledge.
Recommendation
There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania is what I use.
Using charts effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a good starting point;
* Hourly chart that’s about 12 days of data.
* 15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
* 5-minute chart it’s slightly more than 24 hours of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.
What to look at first
1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.
2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:
* Prevailing trend
* Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.
* High and low since GMT 00:00
* Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to use the information gathered so far
1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.
2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend indicated by big picture:
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period moving average and the moving average line should be sloping down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the prevailing trend to be down.
There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.
3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute chart:
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.
Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor trend.
How to trade the information gathered so far
At this point you know the following:
* Direction of the prevailing trend.
* Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major trend).
Possible trade scenarios:
1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on 5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the 60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for a while and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just below the moving average line.
2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market. The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price action is likely and a short position would be correct.
3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute chart) just above today’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.
4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming. As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low lower than the last low.
5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other chart ideas
* There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which generally lasts for a short period of time.
* Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and a nearby reaction unlikely.
* When a strong up move is occurring the market should make both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms and lower tops.
* Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last reaction exceeds the prior reaction you can assume the trend has changed, at least temporarily.
* Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising market; lower tops…
* You will always make the most money by following the major trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more.
* Consider the normal or average daily range, average price change from open to high and average price change from open to low, in determining your intra-day price targets.
* Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and sideways trading are a sign the trend may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend.
* Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will soon become clear… be ready.
* Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great opportunity to play the break on the “rebound”. Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. The move back down is natural and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825.
* After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the safest place to sell.
* The third lower top is also a great place to sell.
* The same is true in reverse for down moves.
* Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the range.
* Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is actively trading.
Limitations of charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance levels meaningless because the basis (all available information) has changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support and resistance levels within the normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000 jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200 points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.
Jimmy Young
This is a guide that tells you, in simple understandable language, how to choose the right charts, read them correctly, and act effectively in the market from what you see on them. Probably most of you have taken a course or studied the use of charts in the past. This should add to that knowledge.
Recommendation
There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania is what I use.
Using charts effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a good starting point;
* Hourly chart that’s about 12 days of data.
* 15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
* 5-minute chart it’s slightly more than 24 hours of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.
What to look at first
1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.
2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:
* Prevailing trend
* Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.
* High and low since GMT 00:00
* Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to use the information gathered so far
1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.
2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend indicated by big picture:
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period moving average and the moving average line should be sloping down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the prevailing trend to be down.
There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.
3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute chart:
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.
Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor trend.
How to trade the information gathered so far
At this point you know the following:
* Direction of the prevailing trend.
* Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major trend).
Possible trade scenarios:
1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on 5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the 60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for a while and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just below the moving average line.
2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market. The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price action is likely and a short position would be correct.
3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute chart) just above today’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.
4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming. As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low lower than the last low.
5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other chart ideas
* There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which generally lasts for a short period of time.
* Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and a nearby reaction unlikely.
* When a strong up move is occurring the market should make both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms and lower tops.
* Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last reaction exceeds the prior reaction you can assume the trend has changed, at least temporarily.
* Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising market; lower tops…
* You will always make the most money by following the major trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more.
* Consider the normal or average daily range, average price change from open to high and average price change from open to low, in determining your intra-day price targets.
* Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and sideways trading are a sign the trend may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend.
* Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will soon become clear… be ready.
* Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great opportunity to play the break on the “rebound”. Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. The move back down is natural and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825.
* After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the safest place to sell.
* The third lower top is also a great place to sell.
* The same is true in reverse for down moves.
* Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the range.
* Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is actively trading.
Limitations of charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance levels meaningless because the basis (all available information) has changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support and resistance levels within the normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000 jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200 points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.
Jimmy Young
Taking Profits
This lesson is provided by Neal Hughes at FibMaster.
So much time is spent on entering a trade. Today I want to focus on some exit strategies. This is not a full Fibonacci course, so if you don't understand the basics I suggest that you visit my website for help with those aspects.
Human nature makes trading very challenging. Sometimes you want to exit a trade too quickly when it goes against you, and to cling on to a winner too long. Too often a winning trade will reverse, taking back most of your profits, or even going into a loss. On the other hand if you exit too soon, you risk missing some big profits. You may find that you're sitting on the sidelines while the market continues well beyond your exit.
In this lesson I'll show you how to bank those profits before they turn against you.
First look at this FOREX chart (JPY hourly chart).
Let's imagine that you were clever (or lucky) enough to enter long near point "A". You're feeling pretty good when price reaches "B". So good that you don't want to exit, because the up-thrust just before "B" give the impression that this market wants to go further.
Before you know it, the market reverses and heads towards "C". Right at "C" you get scared and bail out with a little profit. Not much profit compared to exiting at point "D" or even at "F".
You exit near "C", and feel relieved until you see the market heading (thrusting) up to point "D". You stop kicking yourself long enough to enter when it breaks above "B", just a little before the high at "D".
Soon after your entry near "D", the market retraces to "E", and on the way breaks below the high of "B". Breaking below the high of "B" feels scary because you're thinking this chart could be back at "A" in a flash. So you exit at "E" licking your wounds with a loss in this trade.
You start to notice more frustration now, when you enter somewhere between "E" and "F". You're feeling good near "F", but then the chart dives to "G" and you're stunned! This is a losing day for your account, and it's beginning to hurt.
By this time you feel like the whole market is watching your trades, and they're doing exactly the opposite of what you are doing. You start thinking that they wait for you to enter before they slam you and empty your account..
You have wasted your emotional capital, you don't want to trade any more. You don't have the stomach to consider shorting the rally after "G" to take profits at "H".
There must be a better way!
Banking those profits.
You should seriously consider using profit targets to improve your trading performance. There are several ways to do this, my preference is to use Fibonacci techniques.
On the following chart, I have added a Fibonacci expansion using points "A, B, C". This provides us with three profit targets. They are at 116.52, 116.93, and 117.59, see the blue arrows.
If I add another Fibonacci expansion using points "C, D, E", then two more profit targets are added, at 116.87 and at 117.22 . I have not added those studies to the chart, in order to keep things simple for now. You will notice the 116.87 target is quite close to the profit target at 116.93 in the above paragraph. And the 117.22 target is remarkably close to the swing high at 117.32 which is between E and F. We'll ignore those for simplicity, just remember that Fibonacci is excellent at predicting probable turning points.
The trick with Fibonacci is that the market sometimes blows right through a profit target. So what do you do then? Simple - you stay in the trade! But sometimes the market reverses shortly after a profit target.
Sometimes the market respects a certain Fibonacci level, sometimes not. Some Fibonacci levels are "stronger" than others. Advanced Fibonacci techniques are able to help determine which have more validity, but that is beyond the scope of this lesson. What mechanism could you use to exit the trade?
One practical method of timing a trade is to use an oscillator. Another is to use a moving average. When an oscillator shows a decline of momentum, or when price crosses a moving average, you could exit the trade. Let's explore the "oscillator" option in the following chart.
In that chart, I have removed the Fibonacci studies (less clutter), leaving the blue arrows for profit targets. At the bottom I have added the default Stochastic per E*Signal charting software. I have added a red vertical line whenever the Stochastic "fast" blue line crosses the "slow" red line just after price rises above the Fibonacci target. If you exited when price reached those vertical red lines, you'd be a happy trader!
Already you can see the potential of using profit targets with an exit trigger.
You may want to research the following:
* Possibly exiting a partial position at each profit target.
* Consider entering long again on the dips, when the chart begins to rally again.
* Consider using multiple time-frames, perhaps Fibonacci studies on the hourly chart, and exit triggers on 5 minute charts.
If you would like to become an expert at trading with Fibonacci, see my trading seminars at my website.
- Neal Hughes
http://www.fibmaster.com
So much time is spent on entering a trade. Today I want to focus on some exit strategies. This is not a full Fibonacci course, so if you don't understand the basics I suggest that you visit my website for help with those aspects.
Human nature makes trading very challenging. Sometimes you want to exit a trade too quickly when it goes against you, and to cling on to a winner too long. Too often a winning trade will reverse, taking back most of your profits, or even going into a loss. On the other hand if you exit too soon, you risk missing some big profits. You may find that you're sitting on the sidelines while the market continues well beyond your exit.
In this lesson I'll show you how to bank those profits before they turn against you.
First look at this FOREX chart (JPY hourly chart).
Let's imagine that you were clever (or lucky) enough to enter long near point "A". You're feeling pretty good when price reaches "B". So good that you don't want to exit, because the up-thrust just before "B" give the impression that this market wants to go further.
Before you know it, the market reverses and heads towards "C". Right at "C" you get scared and bail out with a little profit. Not much profit compared to exiting at point "D" or even at "F".
You exit near "C", and feel relieved until you see the market heading (thrusting) up to point "D". You stop kicking yourself long enough to enter when it breaks above "B", just a little before the high at "D".
Soon after your entry near "D", the market retraces to "E", and on the way breaks below the high of "B". Breaking below the high of "B" feels scary because you're thinking this chart could be back at "A" in a flash. So you exit at "E" licking your wounds with a loss in this trade.
You start to notice more frustration now, when you enter somewhere between "E" and "F". You're feeling good near "F", but then the chart dives to "G" and you're stunned! This is a losing day for your account, and it's beginning to hurt.
By this time you feel like the whole market is watching your trades, and they're doing exactly the opposite of what you are doing. You start thinking that they wait for you to enter before they slam you and empty your account..
You have wasted your emotional capital, you don't want to trade any more. You don't have the stomach to consider shorting the rally after "G" to take profits at "H".
There must be a better way!
Banking those profits.
You should seriously consider using profit targets to improve your trading performance. There are several ways to do this, my preference is to use Fibonacci techniques.
On the following chart, I have added a Fibonacci expansion using points "A, B, C". This provides us with three profit targets. They are at 116.52, 116.93, and 117.59, see the blue arrows.
If I add another Fibonacci expansion using points "C, D, E", then two more profit targets are added, at 116.87 and at 117.22 . I have not added those studies to the chart, in order to keep things simple for now. You will notice the 116.87 target is quite close to the profit target at 116.93 in the above paragraph. And the 117.22 target is remarkably close to the swing high at 117.32 which is between E and F. We'll ignore those for simplicity, just remember that Fibonacci is excellent at predicting probable turning points.
The trick with Fibonacci is that the market sometimes blows right through a profit target. So what do you do then? Simple - you stay in the trade! But sometimes the market reverses shortly after a profit target.
Sometimes the market respects a certain Fibonacci level, sometimes not. Some Fibonacci levels are "stronger" than others. Advanced Fibonacci techniques are able to help determine which have more validity, but that is beyond the scope of this lesson. What mechanism could you use to exit the trade?
One practical method of timing a trade is to use an oscillator. Another is to use a moving average. When an oscillator shows a decline of momentum, or when price crosses a moving average, you could exit the trade. Let's explore the "oscillator" option in the following chart.
In that chart, I have removed the Fibonacci studies (less clutter), leaving the blue arrows for profit targets. At the bottom I have added the default Stochastic per E*Signal charting software. I have added a red vertical line whenever the Stochastic "fast" blue line crosses the "slow" red line just after price rises above the Fibonacci target. If you exited when price reached those vertical red lines, you'd be a happy trader!
Already you can see the potential of using profit targets with an exit trigger.
You may want to research the following:
* Possibly exiting a partial position at each profit target.
* Consider entering long again on the dips, when the chart begins to rally again.
* Consider using multiple time-frames, perhaps Fibonacci studies on the hourly chart, and exit triggers on 5 minute charts.
If you would like to become an expert at trading with Fibonacci, see my trading seminars at my website.
- Neal Hughes
http://www.fibmaster.com
Rollovers in Forex by Mark Mc Rae
Even though the mighty US dominates many markets, most of Spot Forex is still traded through London in Great Britain. So for our next description we shall use London time. Most deals in Forex are done as Spot deals. Spot deals are nearly always due for settlement two business days later. This is referred to as the value date or delivery date. On that date the counter parties theoretically take delivery of the currency they have sold or bought.
In Spot FX the majority of the time the end of the business day is 21:59 (London time). Any positions still open at this time are automatically rolled over to the next business day, which again finishes at 21:59.
This is necessary to avoid the actual delivery of the currency. As Spot FX is predominantly speculative most of the time the traders never wish to actually take delivery of the currency. They will instruct the brokerage to always rollover their position.
Many of the brokers nowadays do this automatically and it will be in their policies and procedures. The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.
Just to go over this again, your broker will automatically rollover your position unless you instruct him that you actually want delivery of the currency. Another point noting is that most leveraged accounts are unable to actually deliver the currency as there is insufficient capital there to cover the transaction.
Remember that if you are trading on margin, you have in effect got a loan from your broker for the amount you are trading. If you had a 1 lot position you broker has advanced you the $100,000 even though you did not actually have $100,000. The broker will normally charge you the interest differential between the two currencies if you rollover your position. This normally only happens if you have rolled over the position and not if you open and close the position within the same business day.
To calculate the broker's interest he will normally close your position at the end of the business day and again reopen a new position almost simultaneously. You open a 1 lot ($100,000) EUR/USD position on Monday 15th at 11:00 at an exchange rate of 0.9950.
During the day the rate fluctuates and at 22:00 the rate is 0.9975. The broker closes your position and reopens a new position with a different value date. The new position was opened at 0.9976 - a 1 pip difference. The 1 pip deference reflects the difference in interest rates between the US Dollar and the Euro.
In our example your are long Euro and short US Dollar. As the US Dollar in the example has a higher interest rate than the Euro you pay the premium of 1 pip.
Now the good news. If you had the reverse position and you were short Euros and long US Dollars you would gain the interest differential of 1 pip. If the first named currency has an overnight interest rate lower than the second currency then you will pay that interest differential if you bought that currency. If the first named currency has a higher interest rate than the second currency then you will gain the interest differential.
To simplify the above. If you are long (bought) a particular currency and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate you will gain. If you are short (sold) the currency with a higher overnight interest rate then you will lose the difference.
I would like to emphasise here that although we are going a little in-depth to explain how all this works, your broker will calculate all this for you. The purpose of this article is just to give you an overview of how the forex market works.
Good Trading
In Spot FX the majority of the time the end of the business day is 21:59 (London time). Any positions still open at this time are automatically rolled over to the next business day, which again finishes at 21:59.
This is necessary to avoid the actual delivery of the currency. As Spot FX is predominantly speculative most of the time the traders never wish to actually take delivery of the currency. They will instruct the brokerage to always rollover their position.
Many of the brokers nowadays do this automatically and it will be in their policies and procedures. The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.
Just to go over this again, your broker will automatically rollover your position unless you instruct him that you actually want delivery of the currency. Another point noting is that most leveraged accounts are unable to actually deliver the currency as there is insufficient capital there to cover the transaction.
Remember that if you are trading on margin, you have in effect got a loan from your broker for the amount you are trading. If you had a 1 lot position you broker has advanced you the $100,000 even though you did not actually have $100,000. The broker will normally charge you the interest differential between the two currencies if you rollover your position. This normally only happens if you have rolled over the position and not if you open and close the position within the same business day.
To calculate the broker's interest he will normally close your position at the end of the business day and again reopen a new position almost simultaneously. You open a 1 lot ($100,000) EUR/USD position on Monday 15th at 11:00 at an exchange rate of 0.9950.
During the day the rate fluctuates and at 22:00 the rate is 0.9975. The broker closes your position and reopens a new position with a different value date. The new position was opened at 0.9976 - a 1 pip difference. The 1 pip deference reflects the difference in interest rates between the US Dollar and the Euro.
In our example your are long Euro and short US Dollar. As the US Dollar in the example has a higher interest rate than the Euro you pay the premium of 1 pip.
Now the good news. If you had the reverse position and you were short Euros and long US Dollars you would gain the interest differential of 1 pip. If the first named currency has an overnight interest rate lower than the second currency then you will pay that interest differential if you bought that currency. If the first named currency has a higher interest rate than the second currency then you will gain the interest differential.
To simplify the above. If you are long (bought) a particular currency and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate you will gain. If you are short (sold) the currency with a higher overnight interest rate then you will lose the difference.
I would like to emphasise here that although we are going a little in-depth to explain how all this works, your broker will calculate all this for you. The purpose of this article is just to give you an overview of how the forex market works.
Good Trading
Monday, May 25, 2009
Choosing a Forex Broker
Depending on the type of investing that you plan to do, you may need to hire a broker to handle your investments for you. Brokers work for brokerage houses and have the ability to buy and sell stock on the stock exchange. You may wonder if you really need a broker. The answer is yes. If you intend to buy or sell stocks on the stock exchange, you must have a broker.
Forex brokers are required to pass two different tests in order to obtain their license. These tests are very difficult, and most brokers have a background in business or finance, with a Bachelors or Masters Degree.
It is very important to understand the difference between a broker and a forex market analyst. An analyst literally analyzes the forex market, and predicts what it will or will not do, or how specific currencies will perform. The forex analyst usually offers the so called “signals” which means their predictions of future movements of the currencies; most of the times those signals are performed by computers that analyze the market.
A forex broker is only there to follow your instructions to either buy or sell stock… not to analyze stocks.
Brokers earn their money from commissions on sales in most cases. When you instruct your broker to buy or sell a stock, they earn a set percentage of the transaction. Many brokers charge a flat ‘per transaction’ fee.
There are two types of brokers: Full service brokers and discount brokers. Full service brokers can usually offer more types of investments, may provide you with investment advice, and is usually paid in commissions.
Discount brokers typically do not offer any advice and do no research – they just do as you ask them to do, without all of the bells and whistles.
So, the biggest decision you must make when it come to brokers is whether you want a full service broker or a discount broker.
If you are new to investing, you may need to go with a full service broker to ensure that you are making wise investments. They can offer you the skill that you lack at this point. However, if you are already knowledgeable about the stock market, all you really need is a discount broker to make your trades for you.
Forex brokers are required to pass two different tests in order to obtain their license. These tests are very difficult, and most brokers have a background in business or finance, with a Bachelors or Masters Degree.
It is very important to understand the difference between a broker and a forex market analyst. An analyst literally analyzes the forex market, and predicts what it will or will not do, or how specific currencies will perform. The forex analyst usually offers the so called “signals” which means their predictions of future movements of the currencies; most of the times those signals are performed by computers that analyze the market.
A forex broker is only there to follow your instructions to either buy or sell stock… not to analyze stocks.
Brokers earn their money from commissions on sales in most cases. When you instruct your broker to buy or sell a stock, they earn a set percentage of the transaction. Many brokers charge a flat ‘per transaction’ fee.
There are two types of brokers: Full service brokers and discount brokers. Full service brokers can usually offer more types of investments, may provide you with investment advice, and is usually paid in commissions.
Discount brokers typically do not offer any advice and do no research – they just do as you ask them to do, without all of the bells and whistles.
So, the biggest decision you must make when it come to brokers is whether you want a full service broker or a discount broker.
If you are new to investing, you may need to go with a full service broker to ensure that you are making wise investments. They can offer you the skill that you lack at this point. However, if you are already knowledgeable about the stock market, all you really need is a discount broker to make your trades for you.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Forex Broker Trading Rebates (by Jimmy Mack)
Most investors who trade Forex use a broker. A broker is an individual or a company, who buys and sells lots of currency according to the trader's wishes. Brokers earn money by collecting commissions or fees for their services. Many of the Forex Brokers available today do not charge any fees or commissions. Most of our clients do not understand how a Forex Broker can stay in business and not charge any fees or commissions. Brokers do there very best to spin this fact into a positive for their particular firm, but most Forex Traders know the facts. The fact is that Forex Brokers make a significant amount of revenue from the spread in each Forex trading pair that the client trades. For instance, when a client of these Forex Brokers buy the EUR/USD, the spread is usually 2-3 pips. The cash equivalent of 2-3 pip spread in a standard account is $20-30 per standard lot currency trade. This amount is what the Forex Broker earns for every trade that their clients take. As you can see, the Forex Broker is getting paid rather handsomely to conduct the business of buying a selling currencies. We feel that some of those enormous profits that the Forex Broker can and should be distributed to the Forex or Currency Trader.
You should check that a broker is registered and or regulated in the place they conduct Forex Trading services. A Forex broker also needs to be associated with a financial institution, such as a bank in order to provide funds for margin trading. Picking the right Forex broker for you will take some work on your part. There are Forex Brokers who do not charge a trading commission and some that charge commission. It may be a good idea to talk with friends and business associates about their Forex brokers. You may get some good leads, and you're certain to hear who to stay away from. There is nothing like word of mouth advertising. I have conducted numerous interviews and conversations with leading Forex Brokers, and the most important question you can ask them is always the same, I will explain. I realize you are in the market to make money and so am I. I really want to do my Forex Trading with your firm but I want to be discounted on my trading volume through trade rebates. This type of question for the Forex Broker will reveal two very important things to them. First, they will know that you have done your homework ,and the Forex Broker will know that requesting a rebate is well within the right of any Forex Trader. Second, the Forex Broker you are interested in will most likely not try to pull a fast one over on you, and that you are a knowledgeable Forex Market participant. This should be the first step in choosing the right Forex Broker, because if you are an active Currency Trader, you will be collecting on sizeable trading rebates every month regardless of your trading wins or losses.
If you are thinking of investing online, you could choose several online brokers and contact their help desks. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions could be key in how they will respond to their customers needs. If you don't get a speedy reply and a satisfactory answer to your question you certainly wouldn't want to trust them with your business. Just be aware that as in other types of businesses, Before sign up service might be better than After sign up service. I would put your potential Forex Broker on the clock when you reach out to them. I typically would give the Forex Broker a six hour window to fully address your question by email or phone call. You must realize that even though a Forex Broker Firm calls you back in a few minutes after you send them an email or a call, that does not mean they are the best Broker Dealer available. It means they have a quick response division maybe, but that is it. The Forex Broker has not proved anything to or your interests until their promises are in writing. What I mean is that they can blow smoke at you till the sun goes down, but until they put your needs as a Currency Trader on paper, they are just words. I have found some of the lesser known Forex Brokers are the best to deal with. Remember, the more a Forex Broker Dealer advertises to have your business, the more that cost will be put into your trading spread or fees. The Forex Broker who has a good customer base and treats their army of Forex Trader right, is the choice for me. Those fancy commercials and websites the bigger Forex Brokers have are nice to look at but that is where my interest in them end.
Before you choose an online broker get a copy of their online demo account. What features are included? Is the software reliable? Does it offer automatic trading? Are there extra software features that cost more? I think a FREE demo account is essential for a quality Forex Broker to have and practice on, but they can cause a problem when it comes to live Forex Trading. When it comes to trading in the Forex Market, the Forex Demo account does not take into account the biggest problem a Forex Trader faces, that is emotion. It is great to put on a position in a Demo account that makes and losses incredible amounts of money. What if it was real money that was being won and lost in real time? What if you freeze up when trading your account and start hoping a bad trade back to profitability? these are just some of the many questions that eventually must be considered. I think a Forex Trading Demo Account is a good thing for very new Forex Trader, but be careful not too get to comfortable with trading it. The difference in trading a demo account and a live Forex account is huge.
Before setting up an account with a Forex broker you will need to do further investigation. How quickly will these brokers execute your buy/sell orders? What is their policy on slippage? What are the transaction fees? What is the spread, fixed or variable? What are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts? All these fundamental questions should be investigated, and most of the quality Forex Broker present the answers to these questions right on their websites to view. The most important issue, in my opinion, is the Forex Trading Rebate that a Forex Trader should be receiving.
Don't forget to be prepared to be able to offer the Forex Broker information about your trading volume. If you are trading your own system or trading an Expert Advisor, it is in your best interest to give your Forex Broker an idea of your monthly trading volume. This information that you provide your Broker will help them offer you the best Forex Trading Rebate possible.
by Jimmy Mack (Fx Trade Rebate)
As an exclusive Referring Agent your our Forex Broker, we have taken all the hard work and negotiating out of requesting a Forex Trading Rebate. We want you to earn a large trading rebate and will prove it to you.
http://www.fxtraderebate.com
You should check that a broker is registered and or regulated in the place they conduct Forex Trading services. A Forex broker also needs to be associated with a financial institution, such as a bank in order to provide funds for margin trading. Picking the right Forex broker for you will take some work on your part. There are Forex Brokers who do not charge a trading commission and some that charge commission. It may be a good idea to talk with friends and business associates about their Forex brokers. You may get some good leads, and you're certain to hear who to stay away from. There is nothing like word of mouth advertising. I have conducted numerous interviews and conversations with leading Forex Brokers, and the most important question you can ask them is always the same, I will explain. I realize you are in the market to make money and so am I. I really want to do my Forex Trading with your firm but I want to be discounted on my trading volume through trade rebates. This type of question for the Forex Broker will reveal two very important things to them. First, they will know that you have done your homework ,and the Forex Broker will know that requesting a rebate is well within the right of any Forex Trader. Second, the Forex Broker you are interested in will most likely not try to pull a fast one over on you, and that you are a knowledgeable Forex Market participant. This should be the first step in choosing the right Forex Broker, because if you are an active Currency Trader, you will be collecting on sizeable trading rebates every month regardless of your trading wins or losses.
If you are thinking of investing online, you could choose several online brokers and contact their help desks. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions could be key in how they will respond to their customers needs. If you don't get a speedy reply and a satisfactory answer to your question you certainly wouldn't want to trust them with your business. Just be aware that as in other types of businesses, Before sign up service might be better than After sign up service. I would put your potential Forex Broker on the clock when you reach out to them. I typically would give the Forex Broker a six hour window to fully address your question by email or phone call. You must realize that even though a Forex Broker Firm calls you back in a few minutes after you send them an email or a call, that does not mean they are the best Broker Dealer available. It means they have a quick response division maybe, but that is it. The Forex Broker has not proved anything to or your interests until their promises are in writing. What I mean is that they can blow smoke at you till the sun goes down, but until they put your needs as a Currency Trader on paper, they are just words. I have found some of the lesser known Forex Brokers are the best to deal with. Remember, the more a Forex Broker Dealer advertises to have your business, the more that cost will be put into your trading spread or fees. The Forex Broker who has a good customer base and treats their army of Forex Trader right, is the choice for me. Those fancy commercials and websites the bigger Forex Brokers have are nice to look at but that is where my interest in them end.
Before you choose an online broker get a copy of their online demo account. What features are included? Is the software reliable? Does it offer automatic trading? Are there extra software features that cost more? I think a FREE demo account is essential for a quality Forex Broker to have and practice on, but they can cause a problem when it comes to live Forex Trading. When it comes to trading in the Forex Market, the Forex Demo account does not take into account the biggest problem a Forex Trader faces, that is emotion. It is great to put on a position in a Demo account that makes and losses incredible amounts of money. What if it was real money that was being won and lost in real time? What if you freeze up when trading your account and start hoping a bad trade back to profitability? these are just some of the many questions that eventually must be considered. I think a Forex Trading Demo Account is a good thing for very new Forex Trader, but be careful not too get to comfortable with trading it. The difference in trading a demo account and a live Forex account is huge.
Before setting up an account with a Forex broker you will need to do further investigation. How quickly will these brokers execute your buy/sell orders? What is their policy on slippage? What are the transaction fees? What is the spread, fixed or variable? What are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts? All these fundamental questions should be investigated, and most of the quality Forex Broker present the answers to these questions right on their websites to view. The most important issue, in my opinion, is the Forex Trading Rebate that a Forex Trader should be receiving.
Don't forget to be prepared to be able to offer the Forex Broker information about your trading volume. If you are trading your own system or trading an Expert Advisor, it is in your best interest to give your Forex Broker an idea of your monthly trading volume. This information that you provide your Broker will help them offer you the best Forex Trading Rebate possible.
by Jimmy Mack (Fx Trade Rebate)
As an exclusive Referring Agent your our Forex Broker, we have taken all the hard work and negotiating out of requesting a Forex Trading Rebate. We want you to earn a large trading rebate and will prove it to you.
http://www.fxtraderebate.com
Saturday, May 23, 2009
A Few Forex Basics (by James Hunaban)
The term Forex is short for foreign currency exchange market, and it refers to the direct trading of foreign currencies. Forex is actually a virtual network of currency dealers who are connected by means of telecommunications. This interbank market was originally created in 1971 when international trade changed from fixed to floating exchange rates. The Forex market is open 24 hours a day and the currency exchange operations are continued through working days of the week. Forex is a worldwide market, so when you are sleeping in the United States, dealers in Europe can be trading currencies with their Japanese counterparts. It is the largest financial market in the world, with the equivalent of over $3-4 trillion changing hands every day whereas traded volume on the stock markets is only 500 billion US dollars. Forex is part of the bank-to-bank currency market which is known as the 24-hour interbank market.
Forex trading is becoming more popular every day and it is an exciting and fast-growing marketplace. Transactions are conducted within seconds online and the markets move quickly and take new directions all the time. Forex markets are not based in one place meaning there isn't some large building on Wall Street where a load of people shout and waive dollar bills in an effort to get other people to buy them. Trading System Software to help investors in the foreign exchange market has been around for a long time, but just recently it has become extremely popular. Trading Forex has become really accessible for the private investor because of the World Wide Web, and can be a recession proof business, but it must be noted that Forex is not a means of getting rich quick and executing foreign exchange orders with this aim in mind could well end in financial hardship. Trading in online Forex means that when you are investing in foreign exchange, you are buying one currency and at the same time selling another currency.
Trading occurs over the telephone and through computer terminals at thousands of established locations, as well as within home-based trading businesses worldwide. This article contains fairly basic information, but then I am sure there are many people in the world who don't even know what Forex is, so I haven't gone into any complex strategies here. In the foreign exchange trading markets there is always a risk that a trade will turn against you, and I must stress that the best way to learn the Forex market is to get some experience with live hands on trading. The single best way to learn how to trade in the Forex markets is to have a go.
Discover a lot more about Foreign Exchange Trading at forex trading.
Forex trading is becoming more popular every day and it is an exciting and fast-growing marketplace. Transactions are conducted within seconds online and the markets move quickly and take new directions all the time. Forex markets are not based in one place meaning there isn't some large building on Wall Street where a load of people shout and waive dollar bills in an effort to get other people to buy them. Trading System Software to help investors in the foreign exchange market has been around for a long time, but just recently it has become extremely popular. Trading Forex has become really accessible for the private investor because of the World Wide Web, and can be a recession proof business, but it must be noted that Forex is not a means of getting rich quick and executing foreign exchange orders with this aim in mind could well end in financial hardship. Trading in online Forex means that when you are investing in foreign exchange, you are buying one currency and at the same time selling another currency.
Trading occurs over the telephone and through computer terminals at thousands of established locations, as well as within home-based trading businesses worldwide. This article contains fairly basic information, but then I am sure there are many people in the world who don't even know what Forex is, so I haven't gone into any complex strategies here. In the foreign exchange trading markets there is always a risk that a trade will turn against you, and I must stress that the best way to learn the Forex market is to get some experience with live hands on trading. The single best way to learn how to trade in the Forex markets is to have a go.
Discover a lot more about Foreign Exchange Trading at forex trading.
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